The explosion of worldwide climate-related policies gives resilience to the climate fight even in the face of the USA’s dramatic change in policies under the Trump administration, findings from the Climate Policy Monitor show – but even more needs to be done to keep warming at manageable levels.
A tool co-led from the Blavatnik School, the Climate Policy Monitor provides a detailed view of how key economic rules across countries and jurisdictions align – or not – to climate goals. Its recently released annual report shows consistent growth in climate regulation since 2020, in all parts of world.
The global mushrooming of such rules means that even if requirements weaken in certain jurisdictions, as seen currently in the USA, companies operating across borders will still face increasing global compliance obligations.
However, there are many gaps, and rules vary in ambition, comprehensiveness, and stringency, with few meeting the Climate Policy Monitor’s criteria on all three. Under current policies, the United Nations Environment Programme estimates that temperatures will rise by a catastrophic c.3℃ above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, double the 1.5℃ committed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement (indeed, a rise of 1.5℃ was already reached in 2024, the hottest year on record).
"This growth in rules – and an increase in their ambition, comprehensiveness and stringency – will need to accelerate in order to keep humankind safe", says Professor Thomas Hale, co-director of the Climate Policy Monitor. "And, crucially, the policies will have to be rigorously implemented, not just exist on the books."
The Monitor currently covers the G20 (whose nations account for almost 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions) plus 11 additional countries that bring economic and geographical diversity. It tracks climate-related policies, including legally enforced rules imposed by governments on themselves and on companies operating in their jurisdictions. Developed through pro-bono partnerships with 48 leading law firms around the world, the Monitor continuously evaluates regulations against 250+ data points. It is an output from the Climate Policy Hub, a cross-Oxford collaboration co-led from the Blavatnik School.
At the recent inaugural Oxford Climate Policy Monitor Annual Symposium, an annual gathering of the Monitor's legal expert network, 38 major law firms gathered from over 15 countries, along with academics and policy experts, to discuss how the legal sector should evolve strategically in response to climate and environmental change. The emerging theme was the need to understand and advise on climate-related legal matters, no matter which way the political winds are blowing.
Day to day, lawyers are supporting clients as they navigate regulatory compliance with forthcoming climate rules, undertake new business activities in emerging green markets and technologies, and face new challenges related to climate litigation. And across nearly all practices, law firms face a demand to integrate climate-related risks and opportunities into their legal advice.
The repeal of federal rules and executive orders in the United States may lower the compliance burdens of some businesses. However, listed companies in Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, the EU, South Korea, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Kingdom are or will soon be required to disclose the physical risks that climate change poses to their operations and business. Sub-nationally, rules in California further drive pressure on businesses to move towards greener practices.
At the symposium, law firms discussed how climate rules entail more than just compliance burdens for the clients – they also offer key opportunities. The Monitor’s data also shows 27 countries having put in place rules to green their public procurement. Public procurement, or government spending through contracts, represents anywhere between 13 and 20% of countries’ GDP (World Bank 2020). This means potentially huge amounts of public spending are being re-routed towards products and suppliers that align with national climate objectives. Sweden, for example, aims for 65% of all newly purchased heavy buses to be electric. Turkey has introduced new rules to limit the emissions intensity of its procured cement. The United Kingdom has rules requiring suppliers bidding for government contracts of £5 million or more to have transition plans in place.
