This year marks the expiry of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the UN in 2000 and world leaders are discussing the post-2015 development agenda. Eradicating extreme poverty is still one of the most pressing issues. The World Bank has already announced a broad global strategy to end extreme poverty by 2030 and to promote shared prosperity in every society. 

Will this be this possible? Mthuli Ncube, Professor of Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, has explored the feasibility of these objectives for Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s poorest but rapidly rising region.

“Can dreams come true? Eliminating extreme poverty in Africa by 2030”, part of the Global Economic Governance Programme’s working paper series, is co-authored by Prof Ncube and two African Development Bank economists. Prof Ncube himself is the former Chief Economist and Vice President of the AfDB.

Looking at the challenges that the Sub-Saharan Africa region is likely to encounter, the authors find that the objective of eliminating poverty in the next fifteen years is out of the region’s reach. Even under a ‘best case’ scenario, by 2030 the poverty rate would still remain around 10 percent of the population, instead of the 3 per cent needed to consider the goal achieved.

The authors use numerical simulations to outline a more realistic goal for the region. “Reducing poverty by two thirds of current levels, especially if in part achieved through greater equality, the Sub –Saharan Africa region would be in a much stronger position to achieve the elimination of poverty and promotion of equality" explains Prof Ncube, and he adds: “For this to happen, it’s necessary to promote policies that will support a stronger, more resilient and inclusive growth.”

This is Global Economic Governance Programme's 100th working paper.

Read the working paper “Can dreams come true? Eliminating extreme poverty in Africa by 2030”