This paper from the 2025–26 Heywood Fellowship sets out some building blocks for a new UK strategy. It begins by analysing the global economic order as a dynamic system, shaped by both economics and politics, and considers potential futures the UK might face – using scenario analysis. All of them are challenging for the UK. None of them involve a return to the previous era of (hyper) globalisation. Navigating the present and these potential ‘futures’ requires different policy choices, activities and decisions about whom we partner with. The UK needs a new approach – the status quo is not an option.

The Heywood Fellowship propose a set of enduring objectives for the UK over the medium term, centred on resilience, competitiveness and impact. These are grounded in some unique features of the UK:

• The UK is a significant mid-sized economic power – accounting for 3% global GDP - with our own interests, capabilities and needs that may diverge from larger powers. We need to better develop approaches that give us agency and impact in a more contested world – and to do so consciously. We are likely to need to partner more effectively with other mid-sized powers.
• We consider the nature of the UK economy – a services-based economy that is uniquely open in trade and capital – and the fact that we have been a proud promoter of open, rules-based globalisation. We are especially exposed to some of these shifts and need to find both new opportunities to grow markets sustainably and to develop more insurance against risk or coercion.

Drawing these strands together, we crystalise the UK’s core challenges and propose a set of alternative policy approaches, or ‘policy tramlines’, each of which involve a departure from our current policy settings.

Published early in the Fellowship, this paper is intended to stimulate debate. We welcome views on our framing of the core challenges that the UK faces and on the five potential alternative approaches. The next phase of the Fellowship will be develop these into a strategic framework and specific policy proposals, including the capabilities required to deliver them.