A new book about when and why development occurs draws together decades of experience by faculty member Stefan Dercon, Professor of Economic Policy. 

The developing world is transforming: in the last 30 years, poverty has fallen, lifespans have increased, and many economies have transformed. Yet many countries missed the boat. In Gambling on Development: Why Some Countries Win and Others Lose (Hurst, 2022), Stefan argues that the answer lies in whether or not a country's elites truly get behind growth. 

“The elites in a country have the power to block progress”, says Stefan. “So development takes off only when a poor country’s elites back it.” This is a gamble by elites, he points out: the status quo is attractive, since they have power and privilege there. A developed future is, by contrast, hard, distant and risky. 

But sometimes, elites do buy in, gambling that progress won’t topple them but that instead everyone’s lives can be better, including their own. And once elites commit, growth is possible, since they make political and economic choices that drive progress. 

What does this mean for aid? Humility is required by outsiders, says Stefan. They have a lesser role than they believe. “Outside actors never changed countries: sensible choices by local actors did, and aid that buys into these can be helpful.”

Weaving together stories from across the world that draw on his own direct policy experience as well as his research, Stefan shows that “magic and miracles” can happen in a range of contexts – but only if those in power at the start want it.