“Wir schaffen das noch!”: against the deportation of Syrian refugees in Europe

On November 17, 2025, UK Secretary of State Shabana Mahmood released the Labour government’s controversial plan to overhaul the UK’s asylum policy. Buried within the paper is reference to the situation of Syrian refugees in the UK. 

Today marks one year since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria, bringing an end to a 13 year long civil war that destroyed the country, killed over 650,000 people, and displaced over 13 million more.

1.3 million of those displaced refugees found a temporary home in Europe, with a number applying for asylum and being settled in the UK. With the civil war over, the UK’s asylum plan reflects a worrying answer to the question of Syrian refugees that is echoing across Europe: “send them back.”

Origins and tensions

From 2014-2016, 1.3 million Syrians applied for asylum in European countries, hoping to escape the ongoing civil war. They met a Europe that was disjointed in its response, some countries accepting them and others rejecting them. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Sweden were among the largest recipients of refugees, with Angela Merkel’s Germany taking in almost 1,000,000 Syrians, 

Shortly after arriving in their host countries, the refugees faced a new struggle: building a new life. Many refugees struggled to adapt to their new surroundings; they did not speak the language of their host countries, their professional qualifications were not accepted, and they found themselves living in isolated pockets, separated from their community. 

Syrians’ struggles in integrating into their host countries made them easy targets for anti-immigration politics. A shift in public opinion away from supporting Syrian refugees helped far-right parties across Europe to expand, particularly in countries with large refugee populations. In the ensuing years, the prevalence of the far-right has only grown and so has their hostility to Syrian refuges. The increasing popularity of the far-right has seen many traditionally conservative parties pushing for Syrians to be repatriated in order to win the favour of far-right voters. Syria, however, is not ready for those refugees to return. 

A country destroyed

Whilst Syrian refugees struggled to build new lives in Europe, and the far-right grew in popularity, Syria’s civil war raged on. By the end of the war, over 140,000 building were destroyed, key infrastructure was destroyed, and the country’s economy lay in ruins.

Given the sheer destruction of civil war, it is no surprise that the cost estimates of rebuilding Syria are eyewatering. The World Bank estimates a reconstruction cost of ~£165 billion ($216 billion). The Carnegie Endowment has a higher estimate of ~£242-387 billion ($317-508 billion in 2025 dollars). The highest estimate comes from the current Minister of Economy and Industry of the Syrian Transitional Government, Mohammed Nidal al-Shaar, at ~£767 billion ($1 trillion). 

For reference, using the World Bank’s latest estimates for Syria’s postwar GDP, it would take over 10 years of Syria’s entire GDP to rebuild the country under the World Bank’s estimate and almost 50 years under the Syrian Transitional Government’s estimate. Most distressingly, the UN’s Syria Humanitarian Response Priorities Plan, which will currently conclude at the end of 2025, has remained perpetually underfunded, leaving a shortfall of at least ~£3.1 billion shortfall in necessary humanitarian and reconstruction aid. The EU, for its part, has pledged €2.5 billion (£2.2 billion) in aid to Syria, but this still falls short of the funds required to rebuild the country.

The task of rebuilding Syria will require complex collaboration between the new government, willing countries, the UN, international NGOs, and those civilians who remain. One thing is clear: it is going to take a long time. 

Safe country of origin

In May 2025, the UNHCR conducted a multiple country survey of Syrian refugees living in Europe. When asked where they wanted to live in the next year, only 3% said that they would be returning to Syria. Among the reasons for why Syrian refugees intend to stay in their host countries, the highest is feeling safe and secure. With this concern being a key factor in refugees voluntarily returning to Syria, it is important to ask “Is Syria safe?”

An important factor for European countries in determining whether a country is safe or not is the Safe Country of Origin principle. Under this principle, a country is considered safe when there is “generally and consistently no persecution as defined in Article 9 of Directive 2004/83/EC, no torture or inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and no threat by reason of indiscriminate violence in situations of international or internal armed conflict.” The classification of a country as safe is crucial for the EU to facilitate repatriation of asylum seekers. 

Syria’s postwar period has been plagued by continuing violence. Pro-Assad forces, Druze and Bedouin militias, as well as Kurdish fighters, continue to clash with transitional government forces throughout Syria. Civilians have been caught in the crossfire and, in some cases, appear to have been targeted by government forces. Many civilians are being caught in the crossfire, and members of the Alawite community are being specifically targetted. The killings of Alawite civilians have been described by the UN as massacres and by human rights organisations as war crimes. At least 1,400 people have been killed so far, and the fighting continues. 

In these conditions it would be impossible to classify Syria as a safe country under the EU’s principle, irresponsible to prematurely encourage voluntary repatriations (especially when there are concerns over how voluntary these decisions would be), and inhumane to forcibly repatriate Syrian refugees back to an unsafe country. 

An uncertain future

As of now, Syria is not on official national lists of Safe Countries of Origin and forced repatriation is not the norm. Despite this, European governments are exploring ways to deport refugees and are beginning to do so. In July 2025, Austria made precedent by deporting the first Syrian back to Syria; the man was “disappeared” shortly after arriving in Syria. Now, countries such as Germany and the UK want to do the same through an increasing “temporariness” of refugee status. 

In 2015, Angela Merkel, the then German Chancellor, declared in response to the influx of Syrian refugees, “Wir schaffen das [We can do this].” Ten years later, Syrian refuges still need safety; they still need support. In times like these, we must say, “Wir schaffen as noch [We can still do this]!”