Towards COP29: unpacking the key issues for a sustainable future

As COP29, the world’s biggest summit on climate change, begins today in Baku, Azerbaijan, the world continues to witness the most catastrophic weather events unfold across the globe. 

The recent floods in Spain taking over 200 lives, the deadly landslides in India, and the continuous heavy rainfall and flash floods in Eastern Africa must serve as a stark reminder that COP29 must drive meaningful progress this year. While the COP29 presidency is under intense scrutiny for alleged peace PR tactics and last-minute efforts to include women in the organising committee, it holds significant influence in the transition away from fossil fuels – a commitment first made at COP28 in Dubai.

Meanwhile with President Donald Trump’s election, a changing geopolitical landscape may affect levels of ambition. There is now significant pressure on President Biden’s administration to make meaningful progress at the conference before President-elect Trump assumes office in early 2025. While, the US delegation under the Biden administration might attempt to deliver ambitious climate goals, the future of their implementation under Trump administration remains uncertain. President-elect Trump’s stance against climate initiatives is clear: notably withdrawing from the Paris Agreement during his last tenure as the US President. 

In his re-election campaign, he also maintained his frustration with climate policies and clean-energy initiatives taken by the Biden administration and vowed to withdraw all unspent funds under the newly introduced Inflation Reduction Act that provides investments to clean energy and EV projects. In his winning speech, he has again signaled his support for future fossil fuel projects, saying America has “more liquid gold — oil and gas … than any country in the world”. While there is speculation about the future of climate initiatives implemented by the Biden administration for promoting clean energy projects, experts believe that given that a majority of the such funds have been invested in Republican states, there is a high possibility that they would remain untouched. 

What level of climate finance is needed for developing countries? 

With over 40,000 policymakers, governmental representatives, and other non-state actors attending, this year’s COP has earned itself a special title – ‘Finance COP’ – as a new finance goal for climate action shall be set. 

A key issue is how much money can be mobilised to address the climate needs of developing countries. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries committed to a collective goal of $100 billion annually by 2020 to address those needs. This goal was reaffirmed and extended until 2025 at COP21 in Paris in 2015, with parties agreeing that a new goal would be decided prior to 2025 by the previous Conference of Parties. This new goal, coined the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is expected to be set from a minimum of $100 billion per year, taking into account the needs and priorities of the developing counties. This is what makes this year’s COP particularly significant, as country delegates will need to agree on the NCQG in Baku.

While the agenda for deliberating NCQG is in place, specifics around quantum, timeframe, and contributors remain unclear. While the baseline of annual $100 billion has been agreed, many parties are advocating for up to $1 trillion per year. The estimates of the climate finance needed by developing countries roughly varies from $1 trillion per year to $10 trillion per year. The UN estimates that the NCQG should mobilise $500 billion each year from 2025, increasing to $1.5 trillion per year by 2030. 

There is also debate around the duration within which the developed countries are expected to meet investment targets, especially given that first goal was met two years later than planned. Some developed countries also argue that the current classification of countries as “developed and developing” is outdated and should be revised to include more countries as contributors to NCQG. Developing countries, however, argue that the classification is already defined in the Paris Agreement and there is no legal mandate to amend it. 

On the structure of climate financing mechanism, Joanah Mamombe, a current MPP student and a legislator in the Zimbabwean Parliament, says that one of the main expectations for COP29 is to “address the ongoing funding gap, where developed nations have made commitments for climate finance but often fall short in delivering”. She notes the need for COP29 to “shift the structure of climate finance away from loan-based funding, which further burdens countries already facing financial crisis like Zimbabwe, and instead focus on grant-based funding”.

How can countries limit temperature rises? 

One key tool to limit global average temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius, and preferably below 1.5 degree Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, are country-specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The first targets were part of the Paris Agreement itself and were last updated in 2020. The next deadline to update the targets is in February 2025, making COP29 a timely opportunity for the nations to set expectations and priorities for “NDC 3.0”. 

President-elect Trump’s potential decision to again withdraw from the Paris Agreement poses a significant challenge for US in setting ambitious targets. In his last tenure, President-elect Trump had withdrawn US from the 2015 Paris Agreement in 2020, a decision later reversed by President Biden in 2021. Calling such international agreements unfair to the US, there is a speculation that he might want to withdraw US from the UNFCCC itself. Given the worsening of climate change impacts globally, the impact of the potential exit in 2025 would likely have more severe implications than in 2020. 

Although withdrawing from such international negotiations may take a while, these speculations may impact the negotiations at COP29. The US delegation under the Biden administration could issue their updated contribution targets before President-elect Trump assumes office early next year, though the future of the targets is uncertain. It remains to be seen how much this uncertainty will affect the targets from other nations.

Will health be more of a priority? 

Unprecedented evidence now confirms that climate change is one of the biggest health crisis of the 21st century. Recognising this, recent COPs have increasingly given health framing more of a focus. 

Omnia Omrani, a current MPP student and the appointed Health Envoy for COP28 UAE, argues that “a more ambitious action on climate and health is urgently needed” as only 47% of the 58 NDC commitments updated as of February 2024, referred to health. How can this be achieved? 

Omnia notes that the “COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health will be translated into tangible outcomes in Baku. Health-related discussions and high-level events will be held on 18 November as part of Human Development, Children and Youth, Health, and Education Day”. Recognising the health impacts of climate change as a priority will be essential in shaping the discourse and actions taken at this summit. 

As we look forward to the discussions and decisions that will unfold in Baku, it is imperative that leaders prioritise meaningful outcomes that reflect the urgency of the moment and not be influenced by the US elections. The world is watching, and the time for action is now. Let’s hope that COP29 will catalyse the necessary changes to build a more sustainable, resilient, and equitable future for all.