Reimagining conservation in Kenya: Why foresight matters 

A few months ago, I sat with women forest rangers in Laikipia County, Kenya. One of them turned and said to me, “we are always solving yesterday’s problems.”

They were talking about delayed wildlife conflict compensation, slow rangeland infrastructure support, and recurring land tensions. Their frustration wasn’t just about policy; it was about a system that responds too late.    

This pattern can be seen across Kenya. Wildlife corridors are shrinking, farmers and pastoralists clash over land and water, conservation budgets remain underfunded, and short political cycles undermine long-term planning.   

Together, these pressures point to a deeper challenge: how to balance short-term electoral pressures with the long-term needs of diverse stakeholders. 

Scenario-building: learning from Singapore  

Kenya’s conservation challenges raise a broader governance question: how can states design institutions that respond to immediate pressures without losing sight of long-term risks?  

Singapore offers one answer. Like Kenya, it began modernising in the early 1960s, shortly after gaining self-government, but placed a strong emphasis on structured governance and long-term planning. Central to this approach was strategic foresight and scenario-building to guide economic, social, and urban development 

Scenario-building is a planning tool that can help policymakers imagine different possible futures and understand how decisions taken today shape outcomes tomorrow. At its core, it is about putting yourself in someone else’s shoes and seeing the world through the perspectives, priorities, and concerns of different stakeholders.   

Singapore used scenario-building in the 1990s to guide urban development, bringing together citizens, ministries, scientists, and even sceptics. The goal was not to predict the future, but to explore assumptions, test policies under multiple scenarios, and embed long-term thinking into governance.  

The result is the Singapore we see today: cities designed for human–nature coexistence, ecological corridors reconnected, and fragmented green spaces restored. This success was not due to more land or fewer pressures, but because foresight was built into policymaking, making the future tangible for everyone involved. Kenya could adopt a similar approach in conservation to navigate short-term electoral pressures. Bringing stakeholders together early, including sceptics, helps policymakers understand priorities, fears, and potential conflicts. It also builds trust and reduces resistance, making conservation policies both scientifically sound and socially accepted.  

Take Kenya’s 15 Billion Trees Agenda: if it is tied to the current administration, what happens when the next government takes over? Scenario-building can embed long-term thinking into conservation, ensuring that such programmes endure beyond election cycles and shifting political pressures. 

Of course, Singapore isn’t home to elephants or vast rangelands, and Kenya does not need to copy their solutions. But what we can and must adopt is their discipline.  

Follow the money: making the future real  

One persistent question is why governments haven’t invested more in anticipating conservation challenges. Financial markets pay attention to treasury projections because long-term risks are translated into numbers that matter today: invest wisely now and returns follow; ignore them, and losses are immediate. Conservation lacks a comparable mechanism. 

According to the World Economic Forum, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse rank as the second most severe long-term global risk over the next decade, surpassed only by extreme weather events. In Africa, the crisis is already visible: WWF’s Living Planet Report 2024 documents a 76% decline in the average size of wildlife populations over the past 50 years. Yet the economic and social costs of habitat loss, species decline, and ecosystem collapse are long-term and diffuse; showing up gradually through rising human–wildlife conflict, lost tourism revenue, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased disaster vulnerability. Because these costs unfold slowly and across sectors, action is often delayed until crises become unavoidable. 

Without tools that make future losses tangible and immediate, planning remains reactive rather than proactive, locking governments into short-term responses instead of long-term prevention.Imagine if Kenya introduced legally binding nature targets, modelled on its net-zero-by-2030 climate commitments, giving conservation the same sense of urgency. Governments could commit to restore wildlife corridors by 2035 to maintain connectivity for elephants, lions, and migratory species, while also aiming to halve species extinctions by 2030, with measurable annual reductions. Clear goals to reduce human–wildlife conflict hotspots by 50% by 2030 could prioritise prevention and rapid response, while doubling community revenue from conservation by 2035 would link economic incentives to ecological stewardship. Securing and sustainably managing rangelands by 2035 would help support pastoral livelihoods.  

Targets like these make the future concrete. They compel ministries, counties, and agencies to plan beyond short-term election cycles, turning abstract conservation goals into tangible, actionable priorities.  

The endless horizon  

The practice of foresight teaches us that there is no final destination. Landscapes evolve, governance requires constant adaptation, and political cycles are short. A common mistake is believing that once we set goals and policies, the work is done. Every solution opens the door to the next challenge.  

Nature offers a lesson. Take ants, for example. Tiny as they are, they build and improve their colonies season after season, collaborating and adapting to achieve something far greater than any individual effort. Known as the architects and innovators of the natural world, ants act in anticipation of challenges that haven’t yet arrived. Scientists study them through biomimicry, learning from their efficient, decentralised strategies.  

Ants have inspired algorithms and human innovation, yet their greatest lesson is simple: keep moving, keep adapting, and keep building. The future isn’t about perfect planning; it’s about persistence and action in the present.  For policymakers, this means designing institutions with scenario planning and other foresight tools that endure beyond electoral cycles, embedding long-term thinking into today’s decisions even when political incentives favour short-term gains. 

“Foresight isn’t about predicting the future; it’s about re-perceiving the present.”  
Dr Aaron Maniam