A confidence vote that reshaped Japanese politics

On 8 February 2026, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 316 seats in the lower house – more than two-thirds of the chamber and the largest single party victory in Japan’s constitutional history. The result hands Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a commanding supermajority and the ability to override upper house vetoes.

The scale of the victory is striking given how recently her leadership began. After the LDP suffered significant losses in the upper house election last July, it held a leadership contest in October in which Sanae Takaichi replaced Shigeru Ishiba as party leader, becoming Japan’s first female prime minister.

Her start was far from smooth. The LDP’s long-time coalition partner, Komeito withdrew from the coalition in opposition to her conservative stance after 26 years in government, leaving the LDP in a minority despite a new partnership with the Japan Innovation Party.

Yet Takaichi’s assertive style – despite cooling relations with China – along with closer ties with the Trump administration and a wave of support known as “Sana-katsu” helped keep approval ratings in the 60-70 percent within three months. The snap election she later called would turn that popularity into overwhelming parliamentary power.   

The “Takaichi confidence election”

On 23 January, the opening day of the regular Diet session, Takaichi exercised her authority under Article 7 of the Constitution to dissolve the lower house. It was the first midwinter election in 36 years. She framed the snap election in personal terms, asking the public directly whether they would entrust her with the management of the nation–and pledging to resign if they did not.

In response, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), then the largest opposition party, joined forces with Komeito to form the “Centrist Reform Alliance” (Chudo). The CDP, often described as centre-left, and Komeito – a party supported by the religious organisation Soka Gakkai – had historically differed on key issues such as constitutional revision and nuclear energy policy. To make the alliance possible, the CDP shifted toward a more centrist policy stance. Both parties, whose approval ratings had been declining in recent years, sought to present a centrist alternative to conservative dominance.

With the campaign period limited to just 16 days – the shortest in postwar history –substantive debate struggled to fully develop. The national security issues that Takaichi had initially suggested could polarise the nation were not brought to the centre of the campaign, nor did proposals for consumption tax cuts become a major point of confrontation. Instead, public attention – particularly across social media – focused overwhelmingly on Takaichi herself. As a result, the election took on the character of a de facto confidence vote.

An unprecedented landslide victory

When votes were counted, the LDP’s win exceeded most expectations. With 316 seats, the party secured the power to override legislation rejected by the upper house and pass bills in the lower house based on its single-party majority.

By contrast, the Chudo suffered a crushing defeat. Despite previously holding 172 seats, many senior figures of the CDP – including its founder, Yukio Edano – lost their seats. The number of successful candidates from the former CDP bloc fell from 148 to just 21. Meanwhile, all 28 Komeito candidates placed high on the proportional representation list were elected.

The result confirmed what the campaign had increasingly suggested: this was less a conventional party contest than a referendum on Takaichi herself. Although overall party support for the LDP remained around 30 percent – similar to levels under the Ishiba administration – Takaichi’s strong approval ratings translated into a dramatic expansion of votes.

The election also reshaped the conservative landscape. In last year’s upper house contest, parties often described as far-right, such as Sanseito, as well as the Democratic Party for the People, had made gains. Yet in this election, part of that conservative electorate appears to have returned to the LDP. The party also seems to have succeeded in attracting unaffiliated voters.

Meanwhile, the Chudo failed to establish itself as a credible opposition alternative. The merger of two parties that had historically diverged in orientation did not resonate with many voters, and it is estimated that more than 30 percent of the CDP’s original base withdrew their support.

While the LDP’s surge dominated headlines, Team Mirai – newly recognised as a national party – also expanded its presence. By standing alone in opposing consumption tax cuts and maintaining a constructive stance that avoided inflammatory rhetoric, the party appears to have gained a measure of public trust.

A new chapter in Japanese democracy

Does a genuinely liberal party still exist in Japanese politics today? It is difficult to argue that a clear liberal alternative has existed in recent years. Even the CDP, which has long identified itself as liberal, often focused more on criticising of the government than articulating a coherent governing vision.

Healthy democracies require both competition among parties and meaningful deliberation. In a political landscape now dominated largely by conservative forces, the emergence of renewed liberal forces has become increasingly urgent. Around the world, strands of liberal thought seek to reconcile enduring values with contemporary political realities. Japan must consider how to cultivate a form of liberalism suited to its own context.

Although the ruling parties remain a minority in the upper house, their overwhelming strength in the lower house provides the foundation for bold reform. A shift toward what it calls “responsible expansionary fiscal policy”, as well as debates over constitutional revision that could divide public opinion, is likely to move forward.

The central question now is not only what policies will be pursued, but how they will be advanced. Can the ruling parties safeguard meaningful deliberation in the Diet while fostering transparent, inclusive public debate? At the same time, citizens must remain vigilant and engage more actively in shaping the country’s future.

Recent electoral trends had suggested the possible arrival of a multi-party era in Japan. Yet this election result signals something more profound: Japanese democracy has entered a fundamentally different phase – one that will test both its institutions and its citizens.

The content of this article represents the personal views of the author and does not reflect the official stance of any affiliated organisation.